Choosing our Future:
From Vision to Action
Challenges for the 21st Century
Global events and trends, as well as those that occur in our neighbourhood, are shaping our future. Managing the challenges these events create, and the risks they represent, is integral to effective long-term planning. Equally important is identifying underlying vulnerabilities that increase the risks.
Challenges affecting the National Capital Region can be global, regional or local in scale and can occur rapidly or over the course of years or decades. These challenges can have environmental, social and economic impacts on our communities.
Challenges that develop over a period of years or decades can be characterized as slow changing forces, in contrast to one-time sudden shocks. Both make our communities vulnerable and failure to plan for these challenges proactively can result in major impacts to our systems and people. Identifying underlying vulnerabilities is key to minimizing risks associated with these types of events.
Choosing our Future will identify and evaluate the slow changing forces and sudden shocks that pose challenges for the National Capital Region. To learn more about the forces and shocks that Choosing our Future is thinking about see the projects Forces Papers that have been created by various experts, stakeholders, and citizens.
The following illustrates some of the potential challenges that our communities may face in the future.
Slow changing forces
Climate Change
Climate change will have major impacts globally and locally over the next decades. Globally, we can expect to see increasing incidents of drought, floods and intense weather events. These distant events can directly impact Canadians economically and socially (e.g., through the increased cost of goods).
The National Capital Region can expect more extreme weather, warmer summers and winters and changes in precipitation patterns. Secondary impacts of these changes include increased disease potential, water shortages or floods, increased heat-related deaths, poor air quality and negative impacts on regional wildlife.
Climate change is a serious problem to which everyone contributes. Collective action is necessary to curb greenhouse gas emissions that could have disastrous global consequences. Both efforts to mitigate climate change and to adapt to it are necessary. This means effecting a real change in the way we live and plan our communities.
Energy Resource Scarcity
Energy, in all its forms, is consumed as we go about our daily activities – we use it to move around, to heat or cool our homes and light our offices. Canadians are some of the greatest consumers of energy per person in the world.
With the global demand for energy increasing at a much faster rate than the supply, all societies are facing future energy scarcities. For example, experts predict that the known natural gas reserves will be depleted in the next 20 years, with oil supply arguably in decline already.
As well, Ontario faces electricity supply shortfalls as coal-fired generation is taken out of service and existing nuclear plants approach the end of their planned operating lives. As known reserves of fossil fuels are depleted and our rivers dammed, the available energy supply will decline, becoming less accessible and more expensive.
Financial and Trade Challenges
Financial challenges can be local or global in nature. The changing relationship between cities in Canada and the Federal government may impact us locally in a number of ways (e.g., changes in regulatory authority). In addition, global trade or financial issues can also affect the National Capital Region (e.g., trade barriers, financial collapses) due to war, political instability or environmental collapse.
Air Quality
Air pollution has been shown to have detrimental effects on human health – particularly to those with respiratory problems. Air pollution is both a local and global issue; pollutants do not observe administrative boundaries.
Ontario and Quebec are affected by poor air quality due to migrating pollutants, local industries and transportation. Although the National Capital Region has, to a large extent, escaped the air quality problems seen in other parts of the country, there is potential for increased problems due to increases in energy production, particularly from coal, and transportation-related emissions. This may result in increased potential for health impacts on the local population.
Governance Changes (e.g. Municipal-Federal relationships)
The relationship between municipalities and senior levels of government in Canada is changing. This will present both challenges and opportunities to municipalities in the form of increased decision-making authority and changes to the way funding sources are accessed.
Technological Change (e.g. communications, transportation)
Technological change offers both challenges and opportunities for the National Capital Region. For example, increased access to communications can be beneficial in communicating about risks or catastrophic events. Increased access can also spread misinformation and generate panic. Communications technology is advancing so rapidly that cities and governments will be challenged to keep up with the changes.
Sudden Shocks
Natural Disasters
By their very nature, natural disasters are unpredictable, making planning for them challenging. The effects of climate change will likely increase the probability of natural disasters such as extreme weather (e.g. ice storms) and floods.
Infectious Disease Outbreaks
Outbreaks of infectious diseases have the potential to increase in the 21st century. Increasing global air travel now allows diseases to travel long distances where previously they may have been locally contained (e.g., SARS). In addition, warming temperatures across the country will likely increase the incidence of infectious diseases such as the West Nile Virus. Local outbreaks associated with global pandemics can also occur.
Radiological Emergency
Radiological emergencies can arise from acts of terrorism, wars or accidents at nuclear facilities. The fallout from these events can travel long distances in the atmosphere from the source and have environmental, social and economic impacts.
Water Contamination
The National Capital Region has recently experienced water contamination challenges. Addressing these risks in Ottawa will require a combination of regulatory, technological and management activities as well as improved communications systems. In particular, it will be important to take measures to protect the aquifer as the area develops.
Hazardous Material Release
A key to addressing the risks associated with hazardous materials is to focus on pollution prevention and replacing these materials with less hazardous options, or less risky transportation options.